Math beats intuition. Calculate expected values to decide if you should guess on multiple choice questions.
Click analyze to see the result.
Generations of students have heard the conflicting advice: "Go with your gut!" vs. "Never guess if you lose points!" The truth is not about intuition; it is about Expected Value (EV). Our Guessing Strategy Calculator uses probability theory to determine if a random guess will, on average, increase or decrease your total score. It accounts for the specific "guessing penalty" of your exam (e.g., -0.25 points for wrong answers on the old SAT or AMC tests).
In gambling and testing, you only play if the Expected Value is greater than 0.
The calculator shines when you can cross out obvious wrong answers.
If you are running out of time and have 5 blank questions, do not pattern guess (A, B, C, D, A). Pick ONE letter (e.g., B) and bubble it for all 5. Statistically, you are more likely to hit 1 or 2 correct answers than by randomizing your pattern.
In history or English exams, look for "Extreme Words" (Always, Never, Everyone, None). These are almost always wrong. Crossing out just one of these changes the math from "Don't Guess" to "Guess."
Test makers love placing a "distractor" answer that looks right at first glance (e.g., a common math error). If an answer seems "too easy" on a hard question, eliminate it. That is likely the trap.
No. The SAT removed the guessing penalty in 2016. The ACT also has no penalty. For these tests, you must fill in every bubble. This calculator is for tests like the AMC (Math contests) or older practice materials.
AP Exams (College Board) discontinued the guessing penalty in 2011. There is no penalty for wrong answers on AP Bio, AP Ush, AP Calc, etc. Guess away!
Yes. Even with a positive EV, you could get unlucky and lose points on a single question. However, over the course of a 50-question test, the law of large numbers ensures that playing the Positive EV strategy yields a higher score.
Urban legend. Test makers use algorithms to randomize answer distribution. "C" is no more likely than "A" or "D". Stick to the "Letter of the Day" strategy for blind guessing.
ONLY if there is a penalty AND you cannot eliminate any answers. In all other scenarios, you should put an answer down.
