Probability of Passing
Pure math. If you know X% of the material and guess on the rest, what is the exact probability you will pass?
Exam Parameters
Success Probability
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Pure math. If you know X% of the material and guess on the rest, what is the exact probability you will pass?
"I know about half the material." Is that enough to pass? Intuitively, you might think "50% knowledge = 50% score." But multiple-choice exams are not that simple. If you know 50% of the answers for sure, and you guess randomly on the other 50%, your expected score is actually 62.5% (assuming 4 choices). Our Passing Probability Calculator uses the Binomial Cumulative Distribution Function to tell you the exact percent chance that your guessing luck will push you over the passing line.
The most important variable is not how lucky you are; it is your "Knowledge Floor."
Students often rely on getting lucky. "I just need to guess C on everything."
If you can eliminate just ONE wrong answer on the questions you don't know, your guessing probability jumps from 25% to 33%. This massive shift dramatically increases your probability of passing. Never guess blindly if you can cross out a distractor.
Don't waste brainpower on hard questions early. Go through the test and answer only the ones you are 100% sure of. Count them. If you are 5 questions away from passing, you can relax. If you are 20 away, you know you need to grind.
In the questions you start guessing on, look for grammatical cues. If the question asks for a plural and only one answer is plural, probabilistically, that is your best bet. It pushes your odds above random chance.
If the calculator says >90%, you are safe. If it says 50-90%, you are in the danger zone (a coin flip). If it says <50%, you need to study more immediately.
Yes. Set the "Answer Choices" to 2. Your odds of guessing correctly go up to 50%, which makes passing much easier even with lower knowledge.
If "All of the Above" is an option and you know at least two other options are correct, choose it. If you know one is wrong, eliminate it. Treat it as a logic puzzle, not a guess.
No. This calculator assumes there is NO penalty for wrong answers (standard for most school exams). If there is a penalty (like -0.25), do not use this tool; use the Guessing Strategy Calculator instead.
It is a mathematical model, not a prophecy. It assumes your "guesses" are truly random. In reality, educated guesses have higher odds, so your actual probability might be slightly better than what is shown here.